…running the real risk of freaking people to the point of bringing on a negative health outcome out over such a low, low health risk? I just don’t get it.

Key statement in this article:

However, the chances that someone could have been infected with hepatitis B is less than one in a million. In the case of hepatitis C, those odds drop to less than one in 50 million and are less than one in three billion for HIV, according to OPH.

Other things that are about one in a million:

• The chances of getting killed by lightning in Canada are generally less than one in a million.
• If you flip a coin a million times, you have a 38% chance of seeing 20 heads in a row.

Less than 1 in 50 millionish:

• Super 7 jackpot with one play: 1 in 62,891,499
• Only other reference to odds like this I could find – sisters who each gave birth to one black and one white child.

And one in 3 billion???

• The probability in a game of bridge of one player getting a complete suit (2.5 billion to 1)
• Odds per ESPN commentators on WSOP main event hand (Day 1). Quad Aces (two aces in hole) lost to a Royal Flush.

Get the drift?

With odds this long, wouldn’t it be better to just shut up about it? Why call a presser and go off the deep end over what will almost certainly be a non-issue??? Surely more harm than good will come of this due to increased stress? Out of the 7,000 or so people who will receive letters telling them that there is an infinitesimal chance that they may have contracted something bad at the endoscopy clinic, I would estimate that more than a few of these folks will experience a negative health impact just because of the letter!!!

Am I so off-base on this??? I’m not the only one who thinks this way.

Dr. Michael Gardam, director of infection prevention and control for Toronto’s University Health Network, told CBC News that in cases like this where the risk is so low, not informing the patients at all might be the better choice.

“When you get to less than one-in-a-million, we often times give advice not to tell anybody because the risk is so small, that you’re actually creating more harm by worrying people,” said Gardam.

In fact, one in 100,000 is what I have been told is the threshold for the act/don’t act decision.

Yet the question – “wouldn’t you want to be informed if you had been treated at the clinic” question rightly comes up. Of course, but is the ancillary risk to the greater population worth knowing?

Interesting question.

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

Just a quick tip of the cap to everyone involved in the delivery of the H1N1 vaccine at the Jim Durrell Centre yesterday.

Expecting chaos yesterday morning at 7:45 am, I packed drinks, snacks, reading materials, ensured my mp3 and cell was charged, dressed warmly for the inevitable wait outside in the cold and flurries… etc. I was prepared for anything!

Except for an efficiently-run process…

After all of the media accounts I had heard and read in the past few days, I had expected disorder to reign, a long wait and cold feet. But what I got was, chronologically:

7:45 am : a nice greeting at the door, shown to a seat inside (?!!)

8:00 am: told that wristbands would be distributed shortly

8:15:  moved to another waiting where wristbands were distributed by a very enthusiastic and funny gentleman

8:45: given wristbands and, after staff ensured that they were firmly affixed to my wrist, I left the building.

Total time elapsed – 1 frickin’ hour!

So fine, they got the wristband thingy right… surely things wouldn’t be as smooth at the appointed time of 5 pm?

But again, I am happily surprised. We walk into the arena at 4:55, are greeted with a smile, documents checked and all-injected and outta there after the obligatory wait in the designated area by 5:20.

Wow.

This whole business may be a bit wheezy elsewhere, but on this particular day and in this particular place, they sure knew what they were doing!

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario