… in our election predictions?

Final count:

OLP: 53 (37%)

PCO: 37 (35%)

ONDP: 17 (23%)

Now to compare the predictions:

Conservative-leaning Twitter bud @RunnertheFirst on the popular vote:

Now for the fun part. Based on past history of the pollsters I will predict LPO at between 36-38%, PCPO at 34-36% and the ONDP at 24-26% of the popular vote on election day.

As he pointed out in a comment on the original post, he nailed it.

And yes, he should open up a polling firm!

Squid-dude’s prognostication (seats):
Um. Not quite. I think this was more a case of wishful thinking… I wonder if he used some cephalopod ink in his tea leaves?

And me?

Timmie Hudak and his merry band of tax fighters and gravy finders have managed to totally screw things up for the PCs. Yes, they have projected the wrong messages in the wrong way. And yes, they have alienated many in their own party… BUT… they will still win 30+ seats. Maybe as high as 35. However, the real threat to the Libs at this point is that lingering “Layton effect”. I think that some soft Grit supporters will switch to the Dippers once the ballot is in front of them. And this will lead to some NDP gains in some close ridings (i.e., Ottawa Centre). So I see the NDP in the 25-30 range while the Liberals will limp out with a minority government with 45-50 wins..

Well, I overestimated the NDP vote but was pretty close with the Grits and Hudakians…

Soooo…. the winner is @RunnertheFirst… congrats Allan! I’ll buy you a pint the next time you’re in town (I think I already owe you one). (369)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

Woo hoo! Stevo has been denied that so-called trifecta that he dreamed about! The most laughable thing about this is that it was likely one of his fishing buddies, Rob Ford, that tilted this one into McGuinty’s column.

But crap, 49.2% turnout? That is very disappointing.

Oh, and stay classy, Ottawa Sun:

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LEAFS WIN! LEAFS WIN! Lord Stanley, here we come!

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If you’re on Twitter and in the Ottawa area, follow @ccaaltavista to stay informed about happenings in the Canterbury Area and events hosted by the Canterbury Community Association!

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Lots has been written over the past few days about the passing of Steve Jobs and I think that most of what needed to be said is already out there. So I’ll just say one word:

iThanks

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(103)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

…and golf!

It really is October, right?

I wonder if any researcher has ever run a statistical analysis of the correlation between weather conditions on E Day and the success rate of incumbents?

  (124)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

Yeah, yeah… I and everyone else was off base last time when all of we so-called “pundits” tried to pick the outcome of the May 2 election.

And I have learned my lesson and won’t do it again.

….

NOT!

I love trying to predict outcomes of elections! Back in the old days (before May 2, 2011), I was even pretty good at it… came close a few times to nailing it.

OK, Here’s what ThreeHundredEight says:

And I think they’re close… of all the prognosticators out there, I put the most faith in these guys because of their methodology (I won’t go into details, but I as a statistician can attest to its robustness).

Yet I think this projection gives to little weight to the NDP factor. Yes, Timmie Hudak and his merry band of tax fighters and gravy finders have managed to totally screw things up for the PCs. Yes, they have projected the wrong messages in the wrong way. And yes, they have alienated many in their own party… BUT… they will still win 30+ seats. Maybe as high as 35.

However, the real threat to the Libs at this point is that lingering “Layton effect”. I think that some soft Grit supporters will switch to the Dippers once the ballot is in front of them. And this will lead to some NDP gains in some close ridings (i.e., Ottawa Centre). So I see the NDP in the 25-30 range while the Liberals will limp out with a minority government with 45-50 wins. What follows next is anyone’s guess.

But who knows? This is a mug’s game, after all…

Um, am I dating myself? “Mug’s game”??? Really, Trashy??? (478)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

When I was a municipal pol back in the day, I didn’t have a whole lot of use for MPP Eves, but he did watch out for his constituents – much like Norm Sterling did.

So it is a shame that Hudak’s right-hand hick man sees it fit to slam one of their own…

BTW – how can such a moron have 1921 friends? (296)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

Gee, these so-called debates are becoming more and more irrelevant with each passing election.

Really now, because of the long period of time that Ontarians have had to cast their ballots (great idea, BTW… it’ll be interesting to see if the turnout is bumped up) and the lateness of the debate AND that these things are so incredibly tightly scripted… Well, c’mon, what’s the point?

And let’s face it, the only folks who tune into these charades – or attend the local versions – are those who have pretty much already made up their minds (if they haven’t yet voted).

Yet the pundits are out there this morning declaring that one side won or the other side won. And of course they will. They are either paid to do so or are fiercely partisan.

In reality, after watching the puppets rail against each other, no one “won”. McGuinty simply had to show up and look and sound somewhat “leaderlike” : which he did. And Hudak just had to pretend to be smarter than really is, and not drool too much: mission accomplished there too.  I guess Randy stayed home. And the Dipper CEO had to come across as someone less loony than the conservative pundits and media have claimed. And she was successful too.

So yup, ask yourself if that orchestrated sideshow last night made any difference whatsoever.

Didn’t think so. The Leaders’ time would have been better spent on doorsteps. (407)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

… for my MPP…

Not so good for Hudak and Hillier and their merry band of tax evaders!

Let’s hope that the momentum carries into next month… and it likely will if the PC’s (minus the “progressive” part) insist on shooting themselves in the foot election after election… (126)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

The Ontario election is underway. The latest Harris-Decima poll is somewhat encouraging, but it is early.

Yet,  11 points is significant.

Maybe that old Ontario tradition of going one way federally and the other provincially will hold true again.

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The great debate: Is it “dinner” or “supper”?

I call it “dinner” but grew up knowing it as “supper”. Made the switch somewhere.

What do you call that meal that you have sometime during the early evening?

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The NFL is back. Word.

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Re: KHL tragedy. I will never, ever fly on a domestic airline of a country with a long history of corruption. Never.

Thoughts to the families and friends.

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Should people whose butts do not fit on one seat on the bus (I am currently perched on 1/3 of a bus seat as I write this due to a rather, uh, wide load beside me) have to pay for two seats / double bus pass or fare?

I know. I’m being unfair.

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Speaking of buses, I think OCTranspo is going to have to rethink some of their route changes. If Twitter talk is any indication, there are a lot of unhappy riders. Loads of hate! And that includes me to a degree. The 149 was rerouted to miss my area but another 148 or two is not added to make up the slack. This has resulted in very crowded buses and some unwanted changes to works schedules for some.

I’ll be sending a note to them shortly.

I’m hoping that the mandarins at OCTranspo will listen to constructive ideas for improvement.

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Ward 18 Ottawa Councillor Peter Hume has been very helpful lately. First, he was very supportive in our daycare’s continuing effort to somehow slow down traffic on Russell Road.

Then, as you may remember from a previous post, he followed up on his promise to have the City designers draft a plan for the redesign or upgrading of Canterbury Park.

And, here it is!You can go to this website to register your comments if you are so inclined.

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Finally, school is back in play so watch out for munchkins and yellow buses. Already saw one moron in a BMW blow past a bus with its lights flashing… Ee-dee-ot!

As a sidebar, why does it seem like the biggest assholes on the road drive Beemers? Something to do with the plush upholstery off-gassing in the interiors?

  (371)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario

Some of these new Tea Party candidates are pretty vicious.

Gwendolene Thomason, 42, a Tea Party supporter from Jefferson City, was one of the hundreds on hand who were convinced that the Doberman was a Tea Party candidate until he was outed as a dog.

“I liked what he had to say,” she said.  ”He reminded me of Glenn Beck, only furrier.”

The Doberman’s canine identity finally became clear when he lunged at a man in the front row and wrested a hamburger from his right hand, taking two of the man’s fingers with it.

And some of them are predictable.

**********BREAKING NEWS!!!***********

At Randy Hillier’s request, Hudak representatives are reportedly in talks with Mr. Buster to bring him into a prominent role on the Ontario PC team. (190)

Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario