The Onion Ring besting the PM is still getting attention.
95,544 fans as of the writing of this post.
Hee-hee. I love it.
Of course, someone has started a counter group: Can this Doorknob get more fans than Michael Ignatieff. I might join the one other fan. Just to show I’m truly non-partisan.
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
As someone in the information collection industry, I tend to look to look at polling numbers with a bit of a critical eye. Sample sizes and distributions, question wording and order and the presence of absence of any group (e.g., political) affiliation always plays on my mind when I see the “latest numbers”.
That being said, I have the utmost respect and admiration for how Nik Nanos goes about his business. He is informed, employs scientific, robust methodologies and has no apparent vested interest in the results that he produces.
This is why I don’t really give any great cred to most of the other polling firms. Most but not all (Environics and Decima are also respectable) have an agenda biasing their research that is more often than not funded by a political master or someone beholding to a political master. Not so with Nik.
I have the latest Nik on the Numbers emailed to me as soon as they are available and are often the highlight on my data-filled day.
Yes, I am that lame.
From collection ending Nov. 10:
Looking at which of the party leaders Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper now leads by a significant, 17 point, margin over over Michael Ignatieff. This represents the widest gap since Ignatieff was elected leader of the Liberal Party.
Factoring the advantage in the ballot box and on the best PM front, the Conservatives currently have the upper hand. The dilemma they face is that their numbers are strong but it is difficult to take advantage of it politically because of the Harper communications mantra that “this isn’t a good time for an election”.
Likewise, with a defeat in parliament at the hands of the opposition parties not imminent, it is hard for the Tories to plead the instability or unworkability of parliament.
Dead on.
Harper is in an enviable situation. The economy is on the upswing. His MPs haven’t done anything way too moronic lately. He is looking less like a robot and more like a cyborg.
And there is really no serious opposition. The recent by election results have confirmed this.
The Grits are in big trouble as Iggy has yet to define himself in any meaningful way. I’m sorry Warren et al, but he just hasn’t done it for Canadians yet. This lack of an identifiable Opposition leader has given the ReformCons ample opportunities to slip in their agenda relatively unopposed because they know that if the Opposition were to bring the Government down on a confidence motion at the moment, a Harper majority – and possibly a large one – would be the result. Then the Harperites could go back to pleasing their base of the support (western social conservatives) by passing legislation that will have little appeal outside of the West or rural, backwoods ridings. But it won’t matter at that point since he will have been given a firm mandate for 4 years and damn the bleeding hearts to hell if the abortion, capital punishment, anti-drug issues are back front-and-centre and environmental initiatives and social programs are shelved.
I have warned the Grits before that if they did not get down to the business of having Iggy grab an issue – any issue – and running with it, then the Cons would continue to frame the debate to their advantage. And they have. This could have been mitigated if Iggy had:
So what is Harpy to do? In my mind, he is correct from a strategic perspective to not force an election right now. Canucks are too preoccupied by the Piggy Flu, the onset of cold weather and how much the Leafs are sucking this season.
His chance will come in the spring when the economy has picked up a bit more steam, the flowers are blooming and Canadians from coast to coast emerge from their annual winter funk. Around the beginning of April, I reckon, Stevo will introduce poison pill legislation that none of the 3 Opposition parties can stomach.
And unless the Cons stumble badly over the winter, we’ll be looking a predominantly blue HoC by June.
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Interesting to see all of the bluster that, just a little while back, was being puffed out of NDP mouths everywhere has now faded to mere indifference. The rhetoric has gone from “we’re gonna drive the CPC back into the caves from which they emerged!”
to:
“meh”.
Jack, a few months ago (June 22): (1)
‘Anybody who’s holding their breath and thinking that’s going to change should think twice,’ NDP Leader says
NDP Leader Jack Layton says his party will not prop up the Conservative government if the Liberals move a motion of no-confidence in the fall.
“Our party has opposed the direction of Stephen Harper 79 times in confidence motions so anybody who’s holding their breath and thinking that’s going to change should think twice,” Mr. Layton told a press conference on Monday morning.
“I think that everybody involved would want to see us co-operate in the House of Commons and get some results for people — especially those that are struggling right now: the unemployed and people being left behind,” Mr. Layton said as he inched away from reporters at an archway opening in Toronto.
“So that’s going to remain our preoccupation.”
Personally, I don’t mind if Jack props up Stevie for a while since I am not convinced that this is the best time to defeat the ReformCons (plus it will give many a good belly-laugh). Yes, Iggy had not choice but to throw down the proverbial gauntlet, but realistically the best the Grits can hope for, IMO, is a slim Grit minority. They still need more time to re-build the Grit brans and more specifically, the leader’s brand.
But hey, I don’t get paid for these opinions, so I can say what I like, eh?
So why has the NDP cooled their jets? Likely resources – or a lack thereof. The Dippers would dearly like a few more months to build up their war chest and get their issues into the faces of Canadians. The Grits and the Harperites have grabbed the “helping out the downtrodden and unemployed” banner in recent weeks and Layton and his team will have to work hard to get it back.
And that will take some time.
1. Original article was in the G&M but is now archived and only accessible on a fee-for-service basis.
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
In today’s G&M, Lawrence Martin is exploring a topic that is along the same lines as one that I discussed in a posting a little while ago. Ignatieff and the Grits have been presented with a perfect opportunity to latch on to an issue that can define them from the ReformCons - the American portrayal of our health care system.
It would be a natural fit for Iggy to defend Obama’s proposed program and universal health care in general. Both men are liberal, well-spoken members of the educated class. One would think that Obama’s team would welcome such an ally.
As Mr. Martin says:
These are rocky times on the bilateral front. Trade volumes are declining, border fences have gone up. Financial tumult has walloped America and its paramountcy is challenged, at least to some degree, by Asia’s rise. This country can’t ride its coattails as it used to.
These are big challenges for big thinkers. We expected Mr. Ignatieff to respond by unhesitatingly seeking a close alliance with a liberal President whose popularity in Canada is enormous. Mr. Obama is a busy man but surely, given his contacts, Mr. Ignatieff could have received entry to the Oval Office by now, as opposition leaders before him have done.
It is not too late to hitch his wagon to this train; but Iggy and the Libs should not wait very long into the fall sitting.
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Canada’s health care system has been under a barrage of attacks both in the blogosphere and in the MSM lately – not to mention the mass idiocy that is taking place at those so-called “Town Hall Meetings”. What a crock. Here’s an excerpt:
In one particularly heated exchange, Craig Anthony Miller, 59, stood inches from Mr Specter’s face screaming at him and waving a copy of the US Constitution.
“You are trampling our Constitution,” Mr Miller yelled while police officers hovered nervously around him. “One day, God is going to stand before you, and He is going to judge you and the rest of your damn cronies [in the Congress], and then you will get your just deserts,” he ranted to loud applause before storming out of the room.
Seriously. How do these morons summon up the brain capacity to breathe and talk at the same time?
These attacks have been well-coordinated and organized by the usual right-wing nut groups whose alleged motivation is the preservation of good health care and free enterprise but whose real impetus is the protection of their own collective ass.
I haven’t said much about this whole health care thing – and I have been saving a sort of “omnibus” entry about our system for a later date. Yet, what I do see at the moment is a perfect chance for Iggy and Grits to define themselves as the defenders of the faith – if you will.
What a great issue to latch on to and gain exposure from!
What a high profile and attack-ad proof way to define the leader’s persona and purpose than to vigorously defend an institution that most Canadians identify as being a hallmark of our society!
Yes, most of us realize that it has its blemishes and warts and I don’t differ from this view. It is indeed a system that is in need of a new focus and new thinking. But that being said, it is a fair and modern system of which we should be conditionally proud. And from coast to coast, I would guess that this would be the consensus opinion.
But will Ignatieff step up to the plate? The Harperites are, of course, silent on this. They know that by defending a system that their core supporters (the religious right and the ultra right wingnuts) view with suspicion, they are opening themselves up to internal dissent. And we all know that the ReformCons go tut-tut at any type of dissent.
How about it Grits? Here is a tailor-made, made-in-Canada, attack-ad-proof issue for you to grab and run with? Are you going to take it?
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Since it seems that some folks aren’t buying the traditional ReformCon attack ad, the Harperites are trying something new
I new message slimed its way into my inbox last week from a group calling itself Republicans For Ignatieff. It purports to be a collection of American Republicans who are rooting for Iggy to get into the PM’s chair. My Harper-sense clicked in as I thought it extremely improbable that:
a) Any Republican would know Iggy’s name
b) Any Republican would know that we have a Prime Minister and not a President.
c) Any Republican would have ever heard of “Canada”.
Upon going to the site that the message pointed to, I read lots of text about how Iggy was much more “America-friendly” than Harper and how his values more closely aligned with those of the GOP. I’m not going to repeat the rubbish here. You can go to the site to see it for yourself.
However, I can’t let this go by without some kind of retort. So, I proudly present the launch of a new lobby group that I like to call…
Soviet Russians for Harper
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Until the wall came down, the Soviet Union and Canada had the closest bi-national relationship in the world. Yes, we hated each other’s hockey teams, but we still respected them.
Stephen Harper, 1997
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
* Russia and Canada share the polar icecap
* For the past 36 years we’ve been playing hockey against one another.
* And, thanks to the tar sands, Canada is an ally with a growing supply of energy.
In short, we’re friends, we’re neighbours and we’re allies.
Now more than ever, Russia needs a Canadian Prime Minister we can count on. A Canadian Prime Minister who knows us. A Canadian Prime Minister who loves us.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“Now, this is coming from a Canadian who is not even a citizen of your country, but someone who has loved this country.”
Stephen Harper
(Lecture to the Russian Naval Academy. March 2001.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Stephen Harper is the best choice for Canadian Prime Minister.
Although born in Canada, Harper has always been fascinated by Soviet Russia.
* As a young man, he believed in the Fatherland in a way that Canada never allowed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“I loved my own country, but I believed in the Soviet system in a way that Canada never allowed”
Stephen Harper, 2002
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
* While living in the Canada, Harper pined for the CCCP, saying “Someone like me does not exist in the Soviet Union and that seems to me to be terrible.”
Stephen Harper, 1988
(The Toronto Sun, February 28, 1991.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
* Once in Russia, Harper called it his country on national television.
* And when speaking to a Soviet Military Academy Harper said he “loved” The Great Bear to such a degree that he was thinking of changing his name to Vlad.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“Now, this is coming from a Canadian who is not even a citizen of your country, but someone who has loved this country.”
Stephen Harper
(Lecture to the Russian Naval Academy. March 2001.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Stephen Harper has not only been supportive of Russia he has also been very supportive of Soviet ideas and causes.
* He stood with us on Iraq.
* He defended torture, including coercive interrogation.
* He agrees with the governance model that emphasizes strength, coercion and intimidation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
“To defeat evil, we may have to traffic in evils: indefinite detention of suspects, coercive interrogations, targeted assassinations, even pre-emptive war. Even nasty attack ads!”
Stephen Harper
(The Walrus, May 2004.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
*He loves the tar sands.
“I think the best way to show our love and respect for our Russian comrades is to jointly exploit these valuable resources. And those ducks will just have to deal with it.”
Stephen Harper, Calgary Stampede, 2008
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Join Soviet Russians for Harper today and show your support for Stevo. He’s the right choice for Canada, the right choice for Russia, the right choice for Soviets.
_
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Seems like the combination of anti-Iggy ads and the Grits thumping on the election war drum has given the ReformCons a bit of an edge in the polls. While this does fall a bit within the “who cares” territory – after all, no election till at least the fall – it does point out that the Liberals do have some work ahead of them before the next drop of the writ.
Specifically, they need to better define the Iggy brand. It is not enough for the leader of the party to make election threats and fire cannonballs across the bow of the blue ship, Canadians need to better understand who he is all “about”.
Hitting the summer BBQ circuit will help rebuild the grassroots support that will be absolutely crucial to future electoral success, but it will do little to better define the brand.
My humble suggestion is that Grit staffers spend their summer canvassing all ridings – but especially those that are “winnable” – to clearly understand what is on the minds of Canadians and the role they see for the Liberal Party. From this, put together a brand spankin’ new set of policy statements that are clearly different from the CPC as well as the Dippers and the Bloqistes.
In fact, if they are smart, they would have started this months ago and are right now putting together said statements.
The party needs to distinguish itself from the trash that surrounds it. Both the party as the brand and the leader as the brand must stand out as the only viable alternative.
All that being said, I believe that the Harperites’ rise in the polls is temporary and largely reflects the desire of the nation to avoid an election at this time.
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
According to Ignatieff, the government must meet the following four conditions:
- Provide more details about improving the employment insurance system before the House of Commons votes on budget estimates at the end of the week. The government has said it will introduce unspecified new EI proposals in the fall.
- Give more information about the rate of stimulus spending than included in last Thursday’s progress report.
- Show more details on the government’s plan to contain the ballooning deficit, instead of offering what Ignatieff called “rosy projections.”
- Provide clearer answers on the government’s action plan to deal with Canada’s medical isotopes shortage.
Ignatieff said the government’s answers and performance so far on these issues “just aren’t good enough.”
This is a type of “haggling”. The Grits are playing from a strong position in that the economy has nose-dived, the have a new and semi-intelligent leader, the polls are pretty good and, of course, Steve is still a robot. And no one likes robots.
What Iggy is saying is the following:
I will support you and we can all have a nice, election-free summer if you at least give the appearance of cutting me a deal by meeting me halfway and following through on my demands. Or at least some of them.
Due to it’s unpredictability, it’s a dangerous game when you engage in political haggling. The seller (in this case Harper) can back away and say “Forget it – I’m calling your bluff.” In which case, the one in the role of the buyer (Iggy) must risk losing the “good” that he is bargaining for (the avoidance of an election) or backing down himself and risk losing credibility.
As much as this Trashman would love to see Harper and his merry gang of ReformCons heaved out onto a pile of half-cured compost, he is very nervous about this game that the Grits are playing. It may just backfire and we’ll end up at the polls this summer. Canadians may take out their frustration on the new kid on the block instead of the robot. 
Yikes. Careful Michael, careful…
The teen-monster is doing some training to ready herself for her 3 week stint as a kid’s camp counsellor and last week was my turn to deliver her to said training centre. For whatever reason – and I didn’t want the details… scaaaaarrrrrrrrrrryyyy – the kid was obviously having a bad day / week and it culminated that day in a ruined shoe. Somehow (again, no details please) she caught a lace in a fence and this tore the footwear asunder.
I actually heard about this earlier in the day when she texted me “Daddy – I need new shoes!”
Feeling particularly magnanimous that day, I suggested that on our way home from the training (which was totally “lame”)we stop at the Billings Bridge plaza to see if we couldn’t outfit her in a new pair… was gonna be a rush since closing time was about 15 minutes away. Hurriedly, she tried on a few sizes before settling on a pair and size that she really liked.
“How much?” I asked the sales-dude.
“$89.99”.
“Yikes!”, said I, “how about a discount?”
“Sure, I’ll give you 15% off.”
Huh. It was that easy? I just had to ask? I may be middle-aged, but in no way resemble a senior.
And any commenters claiming the contrary will be immediately flamed and ridiculed.
Our western culture is anti-haggle, with some exceptions. Haggling over the price of a car or a house or negotiating a price at a garage sale is perfectly OK, but we aren’t like those in many Asian or Middle-Eastern nations where the “back and forth” is the norm.
I’m thinking that I’ll do this more often!
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Possible summer election
As much as I’d like to say that I’d like to see an election this summer I have to counsel caution… leadership numbers still too soft, unpredictable and therefore the Grits are vulnerable to the slightest slip-up. Give Iggy the summer. The Harperites will no doubt stumble some more and give the Grits some firm wedge issues on the leadership front.
The risk is that we really are seeing the beginnings of an economic recovery and this will bode well for the Harperites. I doubt that this is the case and that we are at least a year away from seeing real recovery. And even then the manufacturing sector in Ontario will still be undergoing a long period of restructuring.
Regardless, give the ReformCons the summer to (pick one or all of the following:
Sprawl
Ottawa will expand the boundaries of the City by a few hundred hectares. Despite the Official Plan provisions that intensification projects be preferred over more suburbanization, the City staff and politicians will undoubtedly give in to pressure from developers and allow a further stretching of the designated urban area.
I am a Planner by training. Have a Masters degree in the field as a matter of fact. And, in planning school we were taught that sprawl was bad. Infrastructure costs are higher, a sense of community is more difficult to foster, there are higher GHG emissions due to higher automobile traffic, etc., etc.
Haven’t we sprawled enough? Time to give up the quaint notion of the Greenbelt and plan our City more sustainably.
The kids who are running the government
Is it my imagination or does it seem like most of the staffers who work with the ReformCons are under 30? Not to put down those who have yet to experience the delights of middle-age, but the inexperience is beginning to show. Witness the problems that various Ministers have experienced lately that have been the direct result of ill-prepared staffers.
Still. The buck stops at the Minister’s office, doesn’t it? Folks like Lisa Raitt have to accept responsibility and not use the poor kids as scapegoats.
Trashy,
Ottawa, Ontario
Some bald guy from the nation's capital.
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Damage from strike may be long-term: Thank-you Mr. Obvious!
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