Trashy's World

We can dance if we want to, we can leave your friends behind
‘Cause your friends don’t dance and if they don’t dance
Well they’re no friends of mine

HA! I love it when I’m right! Did I not just recently say that the Harperites were setting themselves up to drop the writ in late summer or early fall? Didn’t I ?

‘Shore ’nuff, one of the head CPC minions has thrown down the gauntlet over proposed amendments to C-9 -- the budget enabling and kitchen sink mega-omnibus Bill that is currently in the Senate. The huffing and puffing little Doozer was positively ebullient in daring the Grits to go to the polls.

“Let’s dance,” Conservative Senator Doug Finley said Thursday after Bill C-9, a mammoth 883-page piece of legislation, was chopped down by the Liberals and one Progressive Conservative at a meeting of the Senate finance committee.

“I think there’s more than enough issues here to run an election on, and I’m ready,” Mr. Finley said. “I’ve got buses, I’ve got planes, I’ve got a war room, I’ve got advertising already in the can. We are constantly at work on our policy and platform. I’ve got a tour two-thirds planned.”

Wow! I haven’t heard a Con being that enthusiastic about something since the Blogging Tories were as jittery as schoolgirls over the “illegal” attempt at a coalition between the Dippers and the Grits.

And who can blame the guy? Even the most cursory read of the latest EKOS poll (you know, those guys who were mega-biased against the DeceptiCons a way back a coupla months ago) tells a tale of Liberal woe. It supports my contention that the worse case scenario for Stevie would be a return to another minority Parliament with his willing unofficial coalition partner safely in tow.

Yup, we here in Ontario, and other provinces as well, are going to come down with a severe case of election-sign fever this fall as we head into municipal votes in October as well as a federal vote somewhere between Turkey Day and the end of November.

Of course, for a political junkie like me, this is pure paradise.

Friday miscellany

1. It’s hot, hot, hot here in Bytown!

So hot that there seem to be furious debates about what is appropriate to wear to work. Check out XUP’s take on this…

Of course, furious debates about just about anything are everyday activities here in Ottawa. Remember the big lawn chair debacle of 2007?

Me? Meh. My rule of thumb is that if it’s over 30, I will at the very least throw away the tie unless I have meetings with folks outside of my Department. If it’s over 35, I go naked.

Now THERE is an image to haunt your weekend.

You’re welcome.

2. Lindsay Lohan to be jailed 90 days for breach of probation? ROTFL!!!!!

3. The Huffington Post had a good piece the other day on how scentisits, desperate to get accurate measurements on the extent of the big spill in the Gulf, are being kept away from the area and are encountering roadblocks wherever they turn.

A group of independent scientists, frustrated and dumbfounded by the continued lack of the most basic data about the 77-day-old BP oil disaster, has put together a crash project intended to definitively measure how much oil has spilled and where and how it is spreading throughout the waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

An all-star team of top oceanographers, chemists, engineers and other scientists could be ready to head out to the well site on two fully-equipped research vessels on about a week’s notice. But they need to get the go-ahead — and about $8.4 million — from BP or the federal government or both. And that does not appear imminent.

No matter who is in control, spin is the order of the day, eh?

And I’m glad Jacques Cousteau isn’t around to see this.

4. Looks like the quake did a bit more damage to the homestead than originally thought. Our patio door -- although admittedly old and in need of replacement -- won’t open or close very easily since the quake… it comes right off it’s runners.

Damned quake.

5.  Finally -- GO Spain!!!!!!

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Ah, summer. Hot temps. Thunderstorms. Days at the beach. No need for coats, boots or tuques.

Ah.

Summer brings with it a feeling of satisfaction with oneself, one’s community and one’s country. All’s good, man.

I love the heat.. I didn’t when I was a kid… we had a small hobby farm whose composition varied between horses, pigs, chickens, ducks and geese. I hated the geese. They used to grab my bell bottom jeans and beat me with their wings.

Evil critters, geese.

But worst of all was in the summertime and the hay and straw used for food and bedding. I am deadly allergic to pollen and animals (the allergist has told me my biggest bugaboo is the meek little rabbit). Of course, my parents didn’t believe me when I complained of being unable to breathe, stinging eyes and a constantly running nose. They thought I was trying to get outta work. And said work which often consisted of being in a hay loft full of reaction-inducing chaff and hauling bale after bale down to the equally reaction-inducing animals.

This is a big reason why I’m not crazy about animals to this very day. We have a cat. Clarence. But we will NEVER have a dog, rabbit, or any other beast other than some goldfish and maybe a gecko or tarantula.

As a child, winter was a welcome respite from my allergies.

But, as I said in the first paragraph, summer also brings feelings of contentment with one’s lot in life. Canadians are pretty happy at this time of the year. Fresh off Canada Day, we are starting vacations (13 more work days till mine!), BBQing, swimming in pools and at beaches, and not really paying any attention to what is going on around us politically.

Which is why I think Harpy is preparing to call an election.

Yup. Think about it. late August and early September would be ideal for him to go to the polls. The Grits are going nowhere fast with their so-called Leader languishing behind Harpo, Jacko and Groucho in the leadership polls. But the Libs are gaining some of their support back in Ontario and elsewhere, which would not bode well for a ReformCon chance at a majority.

And Ontario and BC voters are pissed off about the HST thing (though I personally think it’s a good idea) and the difference between provincial and federal political parties is not really clear to the average voter. Thus, they may take out some of their anger by voting for the ReformCons. So Stevo must be thinking that the iron is ripe for strikin’! Majority – here we come!!!!

But who needs a majority? The Cons are pretty much getting everything they want anyhow… what with their coalition partner’s support! So why not roll the dice and take a chance at the big time? The Maclean’s writer, Paul Wells (with whom I seldom agree) puts it this way:

If an election goes really well for him, he’ll be Prime Minister when it’s over. But he’s Prime Minister already. And he’s really the Prime Minister. Another evergreen Ottawa myth asserts that Harper is somehow unfulfilled without a parliamentary majority. But he has had a majority for four years, thanks to a succession of not-ready-for-prime-time Liberals. Every budget he has ever whipped up has passed with Liberal votes.

And in concert with the Liberals, Stephen Harper is changing this country. He was able to gut environmental oversight of energy projects in the middle of a historic energy-sector environmental disaster. He is stuffing the nation’s prisons like Christmas geese. He spent $1 billion turning the country’s biggest city into a demonstration of the necessity (if not, ahem, the effectiveness) of tough policing against thugs, rabble, bicyclists and other miscreants. Inside the riot zone, with the world watching, he stared down Barack Obama in a debate over continued fiscal stimulus vs. relative budgetary restraint. He gets to name Supreme Court justices. He gets to name a new governor general. He’s in charge of nominations to every board and agency.

So he gets to have his cake – and with Iggy’s cooperation – eat it too! So go for the gusto and call a fall election!  Worst case scenario is that he is back as PM and still being supported by their “unofficial” coalition partner.

What a cute couple*

Meanwhile – only 13 more work days till my vacation… ahhhh… hope the heat wave sticks around.

Just keep the critters away from me, K?

*thanks to Harper Valley for the pic.

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As someone in the information collection industry, I tend to look to look at polling numbers with a bit of a critical eye. Sample sizes and distributions, question wording and order and the presence of absence of any group (e.g., political) affiliation always plays on my mind when I see the “latest numbers”.

That being said, I have the utmost respect and admiration for how Nik Nanos goes about his business. He is informed, employs scientific, robust methodologies and has no apparent vested interest in the results that he produces.

This is why I don’t really give any great cred to most of the other polling firms. Most but not all (Environics and Decima are also respectable) have an agenda biasing their research that is more often than not funded by a political master or someone beholding to a political master. Not so with Nik.

I have the latest Nik on the Numbers emailed to me as soon as they are available and are often the highlight on my data-filled day.

Yes, I am that lame.

From collection ending Nov. 10:

Looking at which of the party leaders Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper now leads by a significant, 17 point, margin over over Michael Ignatieff. This represents the widest gap since Ignatieff was elected leader of the Liberal Party.

Factoring the advantage in the ballot box and on the best PM front, the Conservatives currently have the upper hand. The dilemma they face is that their numbers are strong but it is difficult to take advantage of it politically because of the Harper communications mantra that “this isn’t a good time for an election”.

Likewise, with a defeat in parliament at the hands of the opposition parties not imminent, it is hard for the Tories to plead the instability or unworkability of parliament.

Dead on.

Harper is in an enviable situation. The economy is on the upswing. His MPs haven’t done anything way too moronic lately. He is looking less like a robot and more like a cyborg.

And there is really no serious opposition. The recent by election results have confirmed this.

The Grits are in big trouble as Iggy has yet to define himself in any meaningful way. I’m sorry Warren et al, but he just hasn’t done it for Canadians yet. This lack of an identifiable Opposition leader has given the ReformCons ample opportunities to slip in their agenda relatively unopposed because they know that if the Opposition were to bring the Government down on a confidence motion at the moment, a Harper majority – and possibly a large one – would be the result.  Then the Harperites could go back to pleasing their base of the support (western social conservatives) by passing legislation that will have little appeal outside of the West or rural, backwoods ridings. But it won’t matter at that point since he will have been given a firm mandate for 4 years and damn the bleeding hearts to hell if the abortion, capital punishment, anti-drug issues are back front-and-centre and environmental initiatives and social programs are shelved.

I have warned the Grits before that if they did not get down to the business of having Iggy grab an issue – any issue – and running with it, then the Cons would continue to frame the debate to their advantage. And they have.  This could have been mitigated if Iggy had:

• Not been invisible last summer
• Stood up as the champion of the Canadian health care system while it was being assailed south of the border. Even the Albertans would have applauded this!
• Clearly enunciated a distinctive environmental policy that would move us toward lessening our GHGs
• Fill in any other example you can think of

So what is Harpy to do? In my mind, he is correct from a strategic perspective to not force an election right now. Canucks are too preoccupied by the Piggy Flu, the onset of cold weather and how much the Leafs are sucking this season.

His chance will come in the spring when the economy has picked up a bit more steam, the flowers are blooming and Canadians from coast to coast emerge from their annual winter funk. Around the beginning of April, I reckon, Stevo will introduce poison pill legislation that none of the 3 Opposition parties can stomach.

And unless the Cons stumble badly over the winter, we’ll be looking a predominantly blue HoC by June.

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Interesting to see all of the bluster that, just a little while back, was being puffed out of NDP mouths everywhere has now faded to mere indifference. The rhetoric has gone from “we’re gonna drive the CPC back into the caves from which they emerged!”

to:

“meh”.

Jack, a few months ago (June 22): (1)

‘Anybody who’s holding their breath and thinking that’s going to change should think twice,’ NDP Leader says

NDP Leader Jack Layton says his party will not prop up the Conservative government if the Liberals move a motion of no-confidence in the fall.

“Our party has opposed the direction of Stephen Harper 79 times in confidence motions so anybody who’s holding their breath and thinking that’s going to change should think twice,” Mr. Layton told a press conference on Monday morning.

And now (September):

“I think that everybody involved would want to see us co-operate in the House of Commons and get some results for people — especially those that are struggling right now: the unemployed and people being left behind,” Mr. Layton said as he inched away from reporters at an archway opening in Toronto.

“So that’s going to remain our preoccupation.”

Personally, I don’t mind if Jack props up Stevie for a while since I am not convinced that this is the best time to defeat the ReformCons (plus it will give many a good belly-laugh). Yes, Iggy had not choice but to throw down the proverbial gauntlet, but realistically the best the Grits can hope for, IMO, is a slim Grit minority. They still need more time to re-build the Grit brans and more specifically, the leader’s brand.

But hey, I don’t get paid for these opinions, so I can say what I like, eh?

So why has the NDP cooled their jets? Likely resources – or a lack thereof. The Dippers would dearly like a few more months to build up their war chest and get their issues into the faces of Canadians. The Grits and the Harperites have grabbed the “helping out the downtrodden and unemployed” banner in recent weeks and Layton and his team will have to work hard to get it back.

And that will take some time.

1. Original article was in the G&M but is now archived and only accessible on a fee-for-service basis.

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I don’t know about you, but I think attack ads used in political campaigns are not only despicable and cater to the whims of the lowest common denominators, but totally remove any semblance of honest and constructive debate from a political battle.

The penultimate attack ad is this one – shot at the height of the Goldwater / Johnson campaign in 1964.

A little while back, the McCain camp put out this ad, implying that Obama is more celebrity than substance and that being popular in the public eye doesn’t necessarily mean that you are ready to lead the country.

Note the clip of a certain Paris Hilton? Well, Paris put together her own clip as a retort to John McCain. I must say, my opinion of Ms. Hilton has multiplied a thousandfold upon seeing this!

Of course, our own little Stevie Harper, being an admirer of all things negative, cynical and especially American, hires his own team to sic his attack ad dawgs on anything and anyone that disagrees with the Conservative dogma.

All told, these ads, while they do make for some good chuckles, deflect attention away from real policy debates. Stephen Harper wants to debate the environment? well, put something on the table to talk about it and then talk about it! Demeaning an opponent’s argument by attacking the debater is a debating no-no and such attacks are called ad hominem – meaning that the attack is against the person rather than the argument or point. This implies, of course, that the person making the counter-point has no or little basis to pull apart his adversary’s point.

Alas, the Harperites are flush with cash and we can expect more of these inane ads as we gear up for what likely will be a fall election in this country.

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