Trashy's World

Haven’t seen a picture of him in a while. Due to the cancer treatments, I think he has been laying low. Hopefully his re-emergence is an indication that things are going well.

But man, he has lost some weight… and he was not a hefty man to start with.

Keep at ‘er, Mr. Layton… might not always agree with you, but I hope to hell that you beat this thing!

And yeah – Harpy – listen up and meet with the guy! Maybe, just maybe, someone might have opinions on the latest issues that are better than yours!

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Warren Kinsella penned a very good note recently on all of the Grit/Dipper Mergecoalicooperation (new word!) which drew some equally insightful comments… as Kinsella’s columns often do…

James Bow correctly pointed out the following:

You need to be clear about what’s on the table, here. Electoral cooperation, coalition and merger are three very different things, each with wholly different implications for Canadian voters.

And I agree. There is some confusion over these terms that are being thrown about rather haphazardly these days.

Electoral cooperation

This is akin to voting strategically, except on the side of the parties rather than on the voters. There are certain ridings where, in the pursuit of defeating Harpy and having a House with a Progressive Agenda, there can be tacit agreements that the Grits will support the Dippers in some way, or vice versa depending on the circumstances during and election campaign.

For example, say the Cons won a seat by a small margin and one could realistically expect some voters from the 3rd place party to support the second place party if encouraged to do so by the third place party. Take Nunavut for example:

2008 General Election Results:

Even if only 25% of the NDP voters went to the Grits, that would be more than enough to unseat the Cons because it would be highly unlikely that any of the Dipper votes would vote for the Cons… most Dippers would rather burn their union cards than do THAT!

The cooperation could take many forms. Sharing workers, running low-keys campaigns or weak candidates, even an outright endorsement of the opponent – all are possible. But do not. I repeat, do NOT run less than a complete slate of candidates. That is a coalition – not cooperation. And the Harperites would pounce on that like a mongoose on a cobra!

I predict that this is the most likely development we will see in the next election. And it may, just may further the Progressive Agenda.

Coalitions:

Yes, they are legal. Yes, western democracies do use coalitions as a way to bring together different parties under one banner with an agreed upon legislative agenda. Nothing wrong with it.

However, because of the way that the Cons portrayed the last unsuccessful attempt at a coalition between the Grits and Dippers (and NO, the Bloq was NOT as part of the coalition) any notion of a working coalition by the two should be stated up front in the course of the campaign. Give the voters the opportunity to vote for a Progressive vision and still allow them to keep the faith for their own respective parties.

This scenario might happen. But I’m not sure Iggy has the balls or the inclination to do so. His ego might get in the way.

Merger:

Admittedly this is my preference but for a variety of reasons, I don’t think it will happen in the near future, and here is why:

• Too easy a target for the ReformCons. Can’t you see the ads? “Michael Ignatieff and the liberal party have chosen to partner with the tax and spend, nationalizing, pro-Taliban socialists”. Yes, a pile of crap, but the Tim Horton crowd would eat it up.
• Many Blue Grits would rather head for the DeceptiCons than merge with Jack Layton. And many Dippers would just stay home. There is a long history here and to ignore it would be perilous. The combined party – at least right now – may garner fewer votes than the two parties combined as separate entities. That being said, the two parties of the Left and centre Left MUST coalesce at some point in the future if we are to avoid years and years of right-wing bullshit.
• Don’t forget that it took 4 or 5 years before the current Cons won as high a percentage of the vote as the PCs and the Alliance put together during the 1997 & 2000 election campaigns. The internal schism, even if it was temporary, would open the door to a Harper majority; something all Progressives in this country definitely do NOT want to see!

But, hey, for political junkies like me, these are the best of times!

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Update #2

Yes, he does have prostate cancer but will stay on as the Leader of the Dippers while undergoing treatment. Best wishes and good karma from this former-Dipper to he and his family.

Update –

CBC is reporting that he will announce that he has prostate cancer.

I really hope that this is not true.

CBC has announced that Jack Layton will make a statement about his “personal status, and his immediate future as NDP leader” at 2 pm today.

Huh?

He’s gonna step down? Didn’t see that coming if that indeed is what this is about.

It’s the “personal status” thing that bugs me. Is he ill?

Maybe he wants to run in the T.O. mayoralty race.

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Interesting to see all of the bluster that, just a little while back, was being puffed out of NDP mouths everywhere has now faded to mere indifference. The rhetoric has gone from “we’re gonna drive the CPC back into the caves from which they emerged!”

to:

“meh”.

Jack, a few months ago (June 22): (1)

‘Anybody who’s holding their breath and thinking that’s going to change should think twice,’ NDP Leader says

NDP Leader Jack Layton says his party will not prop up the Conservative government if the Liberals move a motion of no-confidence in the fall.

“Our party has opposed the direction of Stephen Harper 79 times in confidence motions so anybody who’s holding their breath and thinking that’s going to change should think twice,” Mr. Layton told a press conference on Monday morning.

And now (September):

“I think that everybody involved would want to see us co-operate in the House of Commons and get some results for people — especially those that are struggling right now: the unemployed and people being left behind,” Mr. Layton said as he inched away from reporters at an archway opening in Toronto.

“So that’s going to remain our preoccupation.”

Personally, I don’t mind if Jack props up Stevie for a while since I am not convinced that this is the best time to defeat the ReformCons (plus it will give many a good belly-laugh). Yes, Iggy had not choice but to throw down the proverbial gauntlet, but realistically the best the Grits can hope for, IMO, is a slim Grit minority. They still need more time to re-build the Grit brans and more specifically, the leader’s brand.

But hey, I don’t get paid for these opinions, so I can say what I like, eh?

So why has the NDP cooled their jets? Likely resources – or a lack thereof. The Dippers would dearly like a few more months to build up their war chest and get their issues into the faces of Canadians. The Grits and the Harperites have grabbed the “helping out the downtrodden and unemployed” banner in recent weeks and Layton and his team will have to work hard to get it back.

And that will take some time.

1. Original article was in the G&M but is now archived and only accessible on a fee-for-service basis.

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