Harper is at the post, and there goes the starter’s pistol!!

Lots of speculation in the MSM and social media about when Stevie is going to visit the GG. The conventional wisdom is that he will make the walk (naw, he’ll be driven) sometime in August in order to make a long campaign a reality; a campaign where the CPC can spend, spend, spend their way to another victory.

The signs are already there for anyone who cares to look:

  • The Annual Steve Shows He Cares About The North Tour™ has been cancelled for this year.
  • Skippy gave away his gazillions to each and every family with kids in the country…until tax time, of course.
  • The polls are inexplicably showing CPC strength and upward trends in most of the country (hmmm… might be tied to Skippy’s Gazillions™?)
  • The Duffster trial is due to crank up again on August 11, with Sir Nigel up as the first witness. The Harper brain-trust (which is, of course, Steve and Steve alone) might think it wise to get the campaign rolling just as the trial resumes in order to front-load any potential damage that the trial may have into the earliest part of the campaign… then spend gazillions on ads designed to change the channel.

So if August, then when?

I looked up some Canada-related significant dates in August, as we know that SH the PM is very into tying himself to the past…

Aug. 13, 1535 – Cartier becomes the first European to sail into the St. Lawrence River, which he believes is a route to Asia. Two sons of Iroquois Chief Donnacona, who are guiding Cartier, refer to their native village as Canada, the explorer’s first exposure to the name.

Aug. 3, 1876 – The first telephone call between separate buildings is made by inventor Alexander Graham Bell, in Mount Pleasant, Ont., to his uncle, David Bell, in Brantford, Ont.

Aug. 12, 1728 – Danish sailor Vitus Johassen Bering sails through the strait that now bears his name in an expedition that would prove that Asia and North America are some 60 kilometres apart.

Aug. 4. 1914 – Following Germany’s invasion of Belgium, Britain declares war on Germany. Canada, as part of the British Empire, is engaged in the war as well.

Aug. 19, 1942 – Canadian troops sustain major losses in a raid on the French port of Dieppe. Nearly 1,000 Canadians die and another 1,800 are taken prisoner.

Aug. 10, 1960 – The Bill of Rights, specifying the rights of Canadians, becomes law. (OK. I just threw this one in to see if you were paying attention! We all know that Harper would never make an election announcement on a day when those pesky “rights” were enshrined!)

Of the above, I would suggest 4th, 13th or 19th. The 4th and 19th both ring loudly in the military history and Steve might be tempted to make the visit on one of those two days. But he runs the risk of pissing off veterans and others as this might be seen as making political hay out of military events (when Steve likes to do, of course).

But, recognising that Harper will not make the northern swing and the still-fairly-recent discoveries of the Franklin ships AND the uptick in ads trumpeting the ol’ true north strong and free motif (the one with the icebreakers), my bet would be on the 12th. It is a Wednesday, not so early that Canadians would grumble about having their summers “ruined”, but not so late as to take full advantage of the CPC war chest. That date is also 13 days after the latest GDP numbers are released… numbers that may quite possibly show that we are indeed in a recession. AND the Wright testimony should be over by then, allowing Harper to go into damage-control mode early in the campaign rather than later when Canadians might actually remember this on their way to the polling stations.

Of course, all of the above might be totally off base and the writ will be dropped in September. Who can really know the mind of Sir Steve?

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