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How close were we?

… in our election predictions?

Final count:

OLP: 53 (37%)

PCO: 37 (35%)

ONDP: 17 (23%)

Now to compare the predictions:

Conservative-leaning Twitter bud @RunnertheFirst on the popular vote:

Now for the fun part. Based on past history of the pollsters I will predict LPO at between 36-38%, PCPO at 34-36% and the ONDP at 24-26% of the popular vote on election day.

As he pointed out in a comment on the original post, he nailed it.

And yes, he should open up a polling firm!

Squid-dude’s prognostication (seats):
Um. Not quite. I think this was more a case of wishful thinking… I wonder if he used some cephalopod ink in his tea leaves?

And me?

Timmie Hudak and his merry band of tax fighters and gravy finders have managed to totally screw things up for the PCs. Yes, they have projected the wrong messages in the wrong way. And yes, they have alienated many in their own party… BUT… they will still win 30+ seats. Maybe as high as 35. However, the real threat to the Libs at this point is that lingering “Layton effect”. I think that some soft Grit supporters will switch to the Dippers once the ballot is in front of them. And this will lead to some NDP gains in some close ridings (i.e., Ottawa Centre). So I see the NDP in the 25-30 range while the Liberals will limp out with a minority government with 45-50 wins..

Well, I overestimated the NDP vote but was pretty close with the Grits and Hudakians…

Soooo…. the winner is @RunnertheFirst… congrats Allan! I’ll buy you a pint the next time you’re in town (I think I already owe you one).


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  1. Weird though it may seem, I was hoping for more from the NDP and Green.

    1. trashee says:

      I’m scared. Very scared.

  2. No squid ink. I was guesstimating that people outside the big city were going to go largely PC (which they did) and that the few Lib seats out there would go NDP.

    Inside the cities, I figured the Lib would largely hold, but that there was enough disgust with their lying and ineptitude to split a bunch of the seats between PC and NDP. Objectively, it’s hard to find a really positive spin for the McGuinty reign. Not that Hudak would have been better, but I doubt he’d have been worse.

    in effect, I expected big gains for NDP, little gains for PC, and massive losses for Liberal because people would just want change.

    I’m quite disappointed by the voter turn out. We get the government we deserve I guess.

    1. trashee says:

      Did you note the turnout in Yukon? Over 75%, I believe…

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