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Ontario projection… just for the hell of it…

Yeah, yeah… I and everyone else was off base last time when all of we so-called “pundits” tried to pick the outcome of the May 2 election.

And I have learned my lesson and won’t do it again.



I love trying to predict outcomes of elections! Back in the old days (before May 2, 2011), I was even pretty good at it… came close a few times to nailing it.

OK, Here’s what ThreeHundredEight says:

And I think they’re close… of all the prognosticators out there, I put the most faith in these guys because of their methodology (I won’t go into details, but I as a statistician can attest to its robustness).

Yet I think this projection gives to little weight to the NDP factor. Yes, Timmie Hudak and his merry band of tax fighters and gravy finders have managed to totally screw things up for the PCs. Yes, they have projected the wrong messages in the wrong way. And yes, they have alienated many in their own party… BUT… they will still win 30+ seats. Maybe as high as 35.

However, the real threat to the Libs at this point is that lingering “Layton effect”. I think that some soft Grit supporters will switch to the Dippers once the ballot is in front of them. And this will lead to some NDP gains in some close ridings (i.e., Ottawa Centre). So I see the NDP in the 25-30 range while the Liberals will limp out with a minority government with 45-50 wins. What follows next is anyone’s guess.

But who knows? This is a mug’s game, after all…

Um, am I dating myself? “Mug’s game”??? Really, Trashy???


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  1. RunnertheFirst says:

    Nailed it as far as the popular vote goes. Maybe I should open up a polling company. No staff required just educated guessing.

  2. It’s fascinating that the radio news (93.9 FM) this morning said there are four polls released today: one placing the Libs 10 points ahead, one 7 points ahead, one placing Lib/Con neck and neck, and one placing the PCPO ahead 3 points.

    The Citizen only ran the most pro-Liberal one with many column inches over multiple pages touting Liberal awesomeness. Looks a lot like media bias by the Citizen. To me, that makes Bell News Media (CFRA, Bob, et al.) look a bit more fair than whoever runs the Citizen.

    Interestingly, a quick glance at the CBC web site shows only the high-Liberal poll, but they do run an article for each of the other two main parties ahead of the poll. Perhaps they’re trying to shed a bit of the image of Liberal bias that has plagued them for many years.

  3. trashee says:

    I agree with most of what you say, Allan. It will be close!

    But man… why do conservatives always label the NDP as socialist? They really aren’t, ya know! More left-leaning, yeah. But socialist? As in “nationalise the banks” socialist? Naw… I don’t see anything in the platform that says this.

    1. RunnertheFirst says:

      Check out their constitutions. Federally the NDP tried to have the word socialist removed from the constitution at one of their recent conventions. The rank in file would have nothing to do with the motion. So the word socialist, socialism still exists federally. As for the provincial counterpart I couldn’t say for sure. Haven’t read their constitution over. Both parties do hide their socialist roots by not being to overt in their election platforms. However a recent quote from Libby Davies left no doubt in my mind the federal NDP are still planning to turn Canada into a socialist country if they ever won a majority in Parliament. I don’t trust their hidden agenda.

  4. My back-of-the-napkin prediction is available here:

    ooo 🙂

  5. RunnertheFirst says:

    In the last federal election the pundits and pollsters had the CPC running up to election day 4 to 5 points less then they actually finished with. While at the same time had the NDP and LPC polling numbers accurately predicted. They invented the ‘undecided factor’ to cover the flaws within their poll analysis methodology. Sort of like Physicists inventing ‘dark matter’ to account for the gravitational forces in the universe they cannot explain.

    I prefer to think the undecided factor is actually folks who still believe how and who they vote for is private and no ones business but their own.

    Will they vote for Layton’s ghost just because. No. I think the average voter has more on the ball then that. Any votes for the socialist NDP will be cast for Horwath and her socialist platform because that is what the voter wanted. Not because Layton is directing their hand from the afterlife.

    Hudak has, as any Conservative leaning party has, a very difficult hill to climb. Provincial gov’ts are a macro version of municipal gov’ts. They exist to provide services for the population. They do not control foreign policy, defence, the economic direction of the country, and the like. Therefore provincial gov’ts are more socialistic then their federal counterparts. This environment lends itself to the left or more centralist parties. Conservative parties have to be more progressive in order to do well in the provincial scene. Hudak’s version of the PCPO is more to the right and therefore out of the starting blocks in a difficult position.

    We will likely see a minority or an oh so slim majority for the LPO and McGuinty. Not because he and his parties policies are the best for Ontario. He has dangerously low trust polling numbers. Something like 66% do not trust him to do what he says. Two out of every three voters you pass on the street every day don’t trust McGuinty however they will likely vote him back into office again. Why? Not because he ran a remarkable campaign but because Horwath’s socialism isn’t what the majority want and Hudak is too right for provincial politics.

    Now for the fun part. Based on past history of the pollsters I will predict LPO at between 36-38%, PCPO at 34-36% and the ONDP at 24-26% of the popular vote on election day.

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