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Predictions versus results – by province

I was cleaning out my backpack yesterday morning, when I came across all of my scribbled (and tear-stained – notes on how I went about calculating seat totals.  I hadn’t yet compared where I went wrong provincially.

The pain of the May 2 results was still fresh so I hadn’t the gumption to take another look. Taking a big gulp, I looked at my notes.

Here is what I figgered on May 1 and how things actually went down.So, I really wasn’t that far off. I did predict the NDP success in Québec, but underestimated it because I did not foresee the utter collapse of the Bloc. I also underestimated the degree to which the Liberals would fold in Ontario. The vote splitting among progressives was something I had anticipated, but not to this level.

All in all, a dartboard might have served me just as well.  Accurate polling is becoming more and more difficult as people trade in their land lines for mobiles and only the politically engaged bother to consent to being questioned by a polling firm.  IMHO, Nanos is about the best out there with its rolling daily sample. And aggregators like ThreeHundredEight give some more context. But this election, like no other, showed that the only accurate poll out there is the one held on E-Day.

Courtesy of ThreeHundredEight:



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