Facts:
1) VIA says 80 passengers per day paying $15 for a one way ticket ( $2400 per day for a return ticket)
2) Del Mastro says 903 riders per day
3) VIA says they need to spend up to $150 million to bring the rail line up to standard
4) VIA says they need to hire 3 engineers and spend $125,000 each just to train them
5) Del Mastro says $3.7 million per year in revenue and $200,000 in profit
6) VIA says that with less than 100 passengers per day they would lose $2,000,000 per year
7) 44,000 riders ( 104 returns trips per weekday or $660,000 in annual revenue at $15 one way) used the line when it was discontinued in 1989

Now do I believe the car salesman or VIA?
Let’s spend $150,000,000 for 80-100 people to use the train and lose $2,000,000 a year?
Sounds like a good deal to me.

VIA, Ottawa at odds over Peterborough line TheStar.com – Canada – VIA, Ottawa at odds over Peterborough line
Railway’s estimates of passenger travel far lower than MP’s

April 15, 2008
Bruce Campion-Smith
Ottawa Bureau Chief

OTTAWA–Just a month before Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced his government’s plan to resume rail service to Peterborough, VIA Rail was saying it had no plans to restore service on a route it deemed a money-loser.

VIA’s internal projections say that passenger service between Union Station and Peterborough would attract fewer than 100 riders a day and would lose as much as $2 million a year, according to documents obtained under the Access to Information act.

“VIA Rail has no immediate plans to reinstate the service between Peterborough and Toronto,” Christena Keon Sirsly, VIA’s chief strategy officer, noted in a letter on Jan. 29, 2008.

Yet just a month later, Flaherty’s budget announcement included $500 million for transit projects nationwide. Catching many off guard, Flaherty said re-establishing the rail link between Peterborough and Toronto’s Union Station – and through his Whitby-Oshawa riding – would be a priority.

His commitment to the line was based on the rosy projections of Conservative MP Dean Del Mastro (Peterborough), who has been actively lobbying for the resumption of passenger rail service to his community.

In his report on potential ridership, Del Mastro predicted that two trains a day in each direction would lure 903 riders a day and turn an annual operating profit of $236,720, a rarity for any commuter service.

He said Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon has asked VIA to explore restoring rail service to communities that had lost it.

“Thus the Peterborough—Toronto rail corridor is well-positioned to have its service restored,” Del Mastro said in his report on the line’s future.

But a VIA estimate done last year paints a far gloomier picture of the rail line’s financial prospects. VIA predicted that just 80 passengers a day would ride the service – one train in the morning and a return trip in the late afternoon – paying $15 for a one-way ticket, according to VIA documents obtained by the Toronto Star.

That would add up to 58,400 passengers a year, up from 44,000 riders who used the line in 1989 before it was discontinued.

But to break even, ridership would have to at least triple, VIA says.

VIA also said there are significant financial hurdles to getting train service up and running, including up to $150 million in construction work to bring the rail line up to standard.

As well, three new engineers would have to be hired, each costing $125,000 to train, and new rail equipment would have to be purchased to serve the new market.

However, Keon Sirsly left the door open to a partnership with GO Transit on the Peterborough service. “It should be noted that the nature of the contemplated service is primarily addressing the commuter market and GO is likely best placed to provide it,” she wrote.

Keon Sirsly said she was aware of Del Mastro’s study, which estimated annual revenues of $3.7 million and a profit of $200,000, but said she was unable to “comment on the source or accuracy of these estimates.”

Now that Flaherty has gone public with the Tory plans to resume service to Peterborough, VIA Rail officials are sounding less definitive about the line’s prospects, saying only that ridership numbers need to be examined.

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/414525